The Hollywood International Press is at a wierd time. Notorious for being the Oscars’ extra chaotic and embarrassing youthful sibling, the HFPA has confronted a myriad of controversies all through its 80-year-old historical past. From moral dilemmas, bribery scandals, accusations of lack of Black illustration in its voting physique, and sexual harassment claims, the HFPA is not any stranger to scandal.
However 2021 was a yr of reckoning for the HFPA, and the Golden Globes suffered due to it. After a lot uncertainty concerning the 2023 Golden Globes, NBC introduced it could certainly air them once more. The Golden Globes will probably play a job on this yr’s Oscar race and can lay a path for a few of the season’s strongest contenders. However who will win? Who will go empty-handed? We break all of it down for you with our predictions and barely cranky commentary.
Golden Globe film predictions
On the movie facet, issues are hectic and complicated. Finest Movement Image Drama appears to be a transparent win for Steven Spielberg’s origin story, The Fabelmans, whereas Spielberg himself appears a shoo-in for Finest Director. Nonetheless, one must not ever underestimate James Cameron, particularly when Avatar: The Approach of Water is on a quick monitor to reaching the $2 billion mark. I wouldn’t put it previous the HFPA to crown Cameron the king of the world once more, particularly in a season that appears much less reluctant to reward a few of 2022’s hottest motion pictures. And whereas the crowd-pleasing High Gun: Maverick stays a chance, its thunder appears to have been stolen by the Na’vi.
In Finest Movement Image Musical or Comedy, it’s a battle of banshees and multiversal beings. It’d seem to be the phenomenon that’s Every little thing All over the place All at As soon as has a simple path to victory, but it surely may need met its match in Martin McDonagh’s tragicomedy The Banshees of Inisherin. Every little thing All over the place stays the favourite, however Banshees retains choosing up momentum, accumulating critics’ awards left and proper and cementing itself as a darkish horse. For now, fortune appears to favor the Daniels’ unconventional sci-fi masterpiece, but it surely’s by no means sensible to underestimate a great black comedy.
Issues are a lot clearer on the appearing facet. Cate Blanchett will win Finest Actress Drama for her tour-de-force efficiency in Todd Subject’s difficult TÁR, whereas Michelle Yeoh has the Finest Actress Musical or Comedy trophy within the bag for her emotional and career-best work in Every little thing All over the place, making each Finest Actress classes a positive factor. Within the Finest Supporting Actress class, Jamie Lee Curtis may win her third Globe for her unhinged efficiency in Every little thing All over the place, however she faces robust competitors from one other overdue icon, Black Panther: Wakanda Perpetually‘s Angela Bassett. For now, my intestine is to stay with Curtis. She is campaigning onerous, and the HFPA likes to reward the trouble.
The male facet is trickier. Finest Actor in a Movement Image Musical or Comedy is locked, and Colin Farrell ought to have his speech prepared if he plans to attend, anyway. As for Finest Actor Drama, pundits are leaning towards Elvis‘ Austin Butler, and it’s straightforward to see why: it’s a flashy efficiency, and the Globes love an up-and-comer.
However it’s reckless to low cost Brendan Fraser, particularly as a result of he has the very best narrative out of any nominee this yr. Contemplating his story with the group, not rewarding him is perhaps an terrible search for the HFPA, and god is aware of they’ll’t take care of one other scandal. So I’m sticking with Fraser all the best way to the Oscars, not solely as a result of his work in The Whale is a masterclass, however as a result of he’s the embodiment of “it’s about rattling time.” As for Finest Supporting Actor in a Movement Image, it’s Ke Huy Quan’s to lose, and no means he’s dropping. The Oscar may as properly have his identify already.
And what concerning the different classes? McDonagh will prevail in Finest Authentic Screenplay, whereas Guillermo del Toro will stroll away with Finest Animated Characteristic for his reinvention of the little wood boy. Finest Authentic Rating is perhaps Babylon‘s solely win, however be careful for The Fabelmans — few issues can beat a John Williams’ rating.
Curiously, the toughest class to foretell is perhaps Finest Non-English Language Movie, the place it’s a two-horse race between RRR and All Quiet on the Western Entrance. The percentages favor the previous, but it surely wouldn’t be a shock if the latter got here out victorious. Lastly, everyone knows the HFPA will need Woman Gaga on stage to just accept Finest Authentic Tune, however they may additionally need Rihanna, particularly contemplating Gaga already has two Globes.
Golden Globe TV predictions
Over on the tv facet, Finest Drama Collection is up for grabs. Apple TV+’s Severance looks as if a really HFPA selection, particularly as a result of they could save The Crown‘s massive wins for its sixth and remaining season. There’s additionally the HBO phenomenon Home of the Dragon, however the World of Ice and Hearth has by no means linked with the HFPA or SAG, and there’s no motive to consider it is perhaps completely different this time. Finest Comedy Collection may seem to be a positive factor for Abbott Elementary, however I feel The Bear will put in a shock win. The Globes like to reward freshman comedies, and the Hulu authentic appears poised to proceed that pattern.
Odds additionally appear to favor The Bear‘s result in win Finest Actor Comedy, the underrated Jeremy Allen White, particularly as a result of nobody in his class appears “sizzling” sufficient for the HFPA’s tastes. Finest Actor Drama is equally unsure: a win for Adam Scott is smart, particularly if Severance wins Finest Drama. Nonetheless, it’s Bob Odenkirk’s final shot at a Globe for his position in Higher Name Saul, and after 5 nominations and no wins, it is perhaps his time to take the stage.
Finest Actress Drama is Zendaya’s to lose, and I don’t see anybody raining on her parade. As for Finest Actress Comedy, I totally count on Wednesday‘s Jenna Ortega to stroll away with the win. The HFPA loves to reward an ingenue, and with the present being an awesome and simple success, Ortega’s path to victory turns into clearer.
The supporting performances are chaotic, as per traditional. Combining Comedy and Drama means you’ve gotten classes with actors from Hacks and Ozark competing in opposition to one another. Finest Supporting Actor will probably go to Severance‘s John Turturro, however Jonathan Pryce may shock, even when his Prince Philip isn’t precisely the very best.
In Finest Supporting Actress, one of many Abbott Elementary girls may prevail, most likely Sheryl Lee Ralph. Nonetheless, I wouldn’t put it previous the HFPA to go together with Elizabeth Debicki for her uncanny portrayal of Princess Diana in The Crown. In reality, I feel Debicki is the probably winner, particularly as a result of her position in season 6 is shaping as much as be quick.
Then there’s the Finest Restricted or Anthology Collection or Tv Movie classes. In an excellent world, HBO’s lunatic satire The White Lotus would prevail, however we don’t stay in that world. Thus, Netflix’s ridiculously-named and irresponsible Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story will come out triumphant — the ceremony is awarding Ryan Murphy with the Carol Burnett Award for honorary contributions to tv; you understand Dahmer will win massive.
Issues additionally bode properly for Dahmer‘s lead, Evan Peters, who will most likely win the Finest Actor in a Restricted or Anthology Collection or Tv Movie Globe for his admittedly chilling efficiency. I’m torn between my want to see Peters acknowledged and the very fact it’s for such an egregious undertaking, particularly when Black Chicken‘s Taron Egerton is perhaps an arguably worthier winner. As for Finest Actress in a Restricted or Anthology Collection or Tv Movie, Amanda Seyfried has it within the bag for The Dropout.
Shifting on to the supporting classes, the place one thing tells me Oscar winner F. Murray Abraham will prevail for his scene-stealing work in The White Lotus. Black Chicken‘s Paul Walter Hauser can be a powerful contender, however I don’t see him getting the HFPA’s favor. Lastly, Supporting Actress appears to be all about Jennifer Coolidge, however she faces pleasant fireplace from Aubrey Plaza and real competitors from Dahmer‘s Niecy Nash. Finally, I feel Coolidge is secure, however Nash might sneak up and pull a not-so-shocking upset.
The eightieth Golden Globes will air on Tuesday, January 10, at 8 p.m. ET. Watch them stay on NBC or stream them on Peacock.